Some already factored in an ETF approval into BTC’s price, while others expected BTC to skyrocket. Right now, is it going down before a big move-up? (Photo by Kylie Anderson on Unsplash)
The biggest story in the past 2 weeks was the SEC’s approval of the BTC ETF. After a 10-year first filing of a crypto-based exchange-traded fund, the SEC finally approved the first ETFs that follow the spot market price of Bitcoin.
The CEO of BlackRock, the biggest asset management in the world, stated that the company applied to list a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) last year due to evident consumer demand for such a product. Numerous rival applications quickly followed after that ruling, which let the floodgates open.
Based on the belief that a large number of retail investors and businesses would decide to invest in Bitcoin if the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin has increased by over 123% since that time. According to a consensus among major banks, upwards of USD 100b could be invested in bitcoin ETFs in the United States this year.
Within the first 3 days of trading BTC ETFs, the net inflow was around 21k BTC or approximately $897m for USD 42,600. With 16,362 Bitcoin added to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), they emerged as the largest new money provider. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) was second with 12,112 Bitcoin. The overall industry inflow was lowered by significant withdrawals from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which lost 25k Bitcoin.
However, that was eclipsed by fresh capital flowing into the ETFs, resulting in net inflows into the ETFs as a whole. Last week’s price action of BTC has been much more muted, with Bitcoin primarily staying in the USD 41k-42k region. It has dropped just over 13% since the release on January 10th.
A lesson for ETH ETF speculators??
When confronted with a binary event—like a stock’s earnings date or the SEC’s decision regarding spot ETF applications—traders typically purchase options to accumulate a long position that capitalizes on increases in implied volatility. However, the strategy exposes traders to the possibility of a volatility crash following the event and the subsequent decline in options prices.
According to market analysts, that’s precisely what happened in the Bitcoin market, teaching Ethereum traders that holding a long volatility exposure might be dangerous on the day of the ETF announcement.
In the days following the approval, the volatility was in the red. This is something to keep in mind as the tale of the ETH ETF develops. Although volatility frequently spikes right before the event, price action typically picks up well before the big day. Being net long volatility might not be ideal during the announcement…
Therefore, as traders make predictions about the possible introduction of an Ethereum spot ETF, they might want to monitor the pricing of ETH options.
This report will examine Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, TRON, Ripple and Ethereum to determine where they may be headed in the next month.
Last Month’s Report: See Issue 11 – 2023 Crypto Live Casino News to track some of the large cap crypto’s highs of 2023 and compare them to the current drop off we are seeing in the current market. FYI – despite this drop off, many still believe this is a bull market.
Crypto Price Watch
(Issue 1 – January 2024 Crypto Price Update News for Live Casino Players)
Bitcoin (BTC) – When writing this update, BTC dropped below the psychological USD 40k level as the crypto market settled. But traders should be aware of 2 downsides that are not acutely obvious. The first is the inflow of
Institutional investors via BTC ETFs. Second, the BTC halving event in April or May will cut limited supplies of BTC by half. Bitcoin is trading at USD 39,000, down almost 11% since the last report. The next critical support level is at
USD 37,000.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) – BCH has dropped 3% since the last report. The coin surged before the BTC ETF approval but has come off since then. Bitcoin Cash is currently trading at USD 226 and appears to be in a bearish trend. BCH has weak support at USD 221 and strong resistance at USD 239.
Litecoin (LTC) – Litecoin has failed in the crypto market downturn. The altcoin has lost 10% in the last month and is down 3% today but has bounced back and is trading at $65.22 USD. Analysts believe this is just a temporary retracement, remain optimistic, and have set a target for LTC of USD 121 for 2024. The reason for the positive outlook is that mining hit an all-time high of 31.68m, which indicates growth/maturity.
Tron (TRX) – The founder of Tron has posted on social media that the total USDT supply of TRX is now over USD 50b. He also said that the TRX blockchain will issue up to $100b TRX stablecoins in the next few months. The founder also boasted that there are 37m users, which is proliferating. This news is very positive but it hasn’t significantly boosted the price of TRX. The stablecoin has been in positive territory since the last report and is currently trading at $0.11 USD.
Ripple (XRP) – While most cryptocurrencies enjoyed the upward trend of the BTC ETF approval, Ripple did not enjoy the benefits. The coin did surge 9% leading up to the approval, and XRP is down almost 18% for the month. The CTO of XRP believes much of the negative media surrounding XRP stems from the Twitter ban policy. He has proposed banning X users who post non-crypto topics in non-crypto threads. He stated that this strategy will protect users who might get annoying replies to this/their posts. His statement has had mixed commentary from the crypto community, but he insists that this will quell ETH bots. XRP is currently in a bearish trend, trading at $0.51 USD with weak support at $0.49 USD.
Ethereum (ETH) – Ethereum broke through the USD 2,400 yesterday and looks poised to drop even further. To compound the bearish trend, a major stakeholder sold $46m USD of ETH today, which may cause more selling pressure. These challenging issues for ETH have caught the attention of market analysts, who are monitoring speculation and potential fallout from the media. ETH is currently trading at USD 2.222 and may hit lower lows.
Disclaimer: The information provided on large cap cryptos in this report is for live casino players. We are not an investment advisory portal and would urge caution and further research if you plan to invest in the cryptocurrency market. For more information about gambling entertainment using crypto, visit our guide to live casino crypto gambling here.
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