UK gambling affordability checks may push 1M+ to black market. Survey reveals low compliance, raising concerns over unlicensed casino usage. (Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels)
A very real and worrying concern coming out of a survey conducted in tandem by YouGov and the OLBG (Online Betting Guide) in the UK shows that more than 1 million could end up playing at unlicenced or black-market online and live casinos.
Only 21.8% of 1,001 respondents said that their online gambling platform requested documentation regarding affordability checks. That’s roughly 218 people, and from this number, the worry stats are a minute figure of 4.1% (9 respondents) and another figure of 17.9% (39 people).
The 4.1% group said they turned to the online gambling black market to gamble. However, worrying, 17.9% said they did not provide documentation and turned to another platform. Here’s the worrying stat, if that 17.9% are turning to another platform, does that mean if all UK gambling sites request affordability checks, will those people also turn to black market gambling?
Let’s do the math. If 48 (39 + 9) out of every 1,001 online gamblers in the UK turn to the black market, that’s a worrying stat despite the low numbers. 48 as a percentage of 1,001 people is 4.8%. There are 19.4 million that gamble online in the UK. If 4.8% turn to the black market that’s a staggering 931,200 people.
What is a black-maker casino? Any online casino that does not hold UK Gambling Commission online gambling licensing. This could be a casino operating under the Curacao licensing authority or an establishment operating freely with no licensing whatsoever.
17.9% Switched to Another UKGC Casino – Is this a worrying stat?
Let’s take another scenario here. Maybe those that switched to another UKGC-regulated gambling site did so because they want to avoid the black market. However, even if we cut the number of people that switched to another licenced casino in half the numbers don’t get much better.
Take the 9 respondents that turned to black market gambling and add on 19 people from those that switched to another UKGC casino. We have 28 dissatisfied UK gamblers.
The percentage is now 2.8%. From 19.4 million online gamblers, that is still 534,200 people. And even if you just include the small number of 9 people, which is 0.8991% of 1,001, that’s still a whopping 174,744 people that will turn to black market gambling.
What is a UKGC Casino? These are online casinos that operate under the UK Gambling Commission’s online gambling licensing. You will find a list of these via our best live casino sites UK guide. These are live casinos, online casinos and sports betting sites such as LeoVegas, 888Casino and Mr Green.
The 3 Scenarios the White Paper Gurus Will Need to Consider
To go over the above figures once again and to reiterate the correctness of what I am saying. These 3 scenarios use the numbers from the 21.8% (218 people) that have been asked to provide documentation as part of an affordability check campaign. And from those 218 people, 4.1% (9 respondents) switched to the black market and 17.9% (39 people) switched to another UKGC casino.
Therefore, the 3 scenarios below use the sample percentages from the survey and I apply them to the 19.4 million online gamblers in the UK.
- Scenario 1: 931,200 UK gamblers turn to black market gambling. (This figure assumes all those that switched to another site be it black market or UKGC licenced will turn to black market gambling).
- Scenario 2: 534,200 UK gamblers turn to black market gambling. (This figure assumes all those that switched to a black-market gambling site and 50% of those that switched to UKGC licenced will turn to black-market gambling).
- Scenario 3: 174,744 (This figure assumes none of those that switched to a UKGC gambling site will touch the black-market casino industry, and only includes those that already have).
Do these numbers show real risk? Affordability checks could risk up to 931,200 people heading to the black market. Even 25% of this number is 232,800 people. Is the UK government willing to risk these people playing at unregulated online casinos and sports books?
250,000 UK Players Already Visit Black Market Online Gambling Sites
The bad news gets worse. According to another survey by Yield Sec, over 250,000 people visited black market sites during the world cup, and Mathew O’Connor mentioned this in his ‘UK Black Market Gambling’ news analysis. Now add that number to the numbers in the 3 scenarios above.
- Scenario 1: 931,200 + 250,000 = 1,181,200
- Scenario 2: 534,200 + 250,000 = 784,200
- Scenario 3: 174,744 + 250,000 = 424,744
Affordability Checks are a real issue! None of those numbers looks attractive to anyone who will currently be carrying out the UK gambling market’s white paper draft. The hard facts are, all 3 scenarios are not good and will thousands of UK gamblers at risk.
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